This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
24H VOLUME
$15.4K
LIQUIDITY
$15.4K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (50)
Mikelious Sep 23
"The United States has effectively implemented a global "aviation blockade" or secondary boycott on Iranian airlines, cutting off international air routes."
pink.impala Sep 9
fuck ukraine
SIMOMEGA Sep 9
says the guy with neg pnl
pink.impala Sep 4
🤡
SIMOMEGA Sep 3
cmon guys give me another market manip pleaseeee
Shay1 Aug 31
Well it’s or tonight or August 31 done🥲
Hennesseeyyyy Aug 30
Iran announced airspace clearance!
GollumGekko Aug 30
REPORT FROM IRAN: Tehran’s Mehrabad Airport has been closed until further notice.
Car Aug 30
boom
clazzy1 Aug 25
mike are you done losing?
SIMOMEGA Aug 24
what happened to Yes pricing?
hyper-liquid-xyz Aug 20
Iran has a 3-4 week ultimatum issued a few days ago for US to surrender to their demands. Iran's Araghchi mocked Trump's economic d-day tweet, he claimed the move was designed to distract from Washington’s “unprecedented debt & surging interest costs”.
Shay1 Aug 19
Too much quitting ngl I think we back to war this time fr or ggs and go 100% forever peace type of shit
Mikelious Aug 19
IDF HAS ENTERED ALI TAHER RIDGE.
Mikelious Aug 15
BREAKING: U.S. preparing for a significant escalation of pressure on Iran** The United States is expected to expand its economic and maritime pressure measures against Iran, going beyond sanctions on Iranian companies and entities. The main focus: money-transfer networks and currency exchangers suspected of facilitating the transfer of funds to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s armed forces.
Shay1 Aug 15
An Iranian Revolutionary Guards Navy commander, anonymously to the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar affiliated with Hezbollah:* "Do you have a thought for a historic response, if such an attack is launched when no target in our target bank will be immune, whether small or large" ✍️ The Iranian commander is responding appropriately to any attempt to take control of the islands around the Strait of Hormuz, hours after an oil tanker was hit by a drone in the Strait.
Mikelious Aug 14
U.S. President Donald Trump: "Pretty soon, I'll be declaring the Strait of Hormuz a territory of the United States."
Mikelious Aug 13
According to sources: U.S. CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper is pushing for renewed strikes on Iran. Cooper reportedly told Israeli officials that he believes resuming the military campaign against Iran could put pressure on Tehran and lead it to change its position in the negotiations.
Shay1 Aug 11
Reports of explosions in the Sirik region of southern Iran* ✍️ Channels affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards are reporting explosions in the region, and claim that this is likely a missile launch towards the Strait of Hormuz - another incident in the sensitive strait, after earlier today it was reported that a US helicopter fired at a ship that tried to break the blockade.
Shay1 Aug 11
Netanyahu asked the court to reserve Defense Minister Katz - "in light of an exceptional security situation that cannot be specified"* ✍️ The request comes after the Likud announced last night that in addition to Netanyahu himself, ministers Israel Katz, Gideon Sa'ar and Haim Katz will also be reserved. The leaked version of the request does not specify the nature of that security situation - only that it is "exceptional" and nothing can be revealed about it. 🔵 Katz's reservation joins the reservation announced last night for Netanyahu himself, Sa'ar and Haim Katz. 🔵 The drafter of the request explicitly refrains from specifying the security situation - the leaked version makes it completely unclear. ❌ *The official reason for the Defense Minister's reservation: an exceptional security situation that cannot be specified.
Shay1 Aug 9
Israel get no choice trump have no idea how to win war for him to lose and pay 400B$ is win… Israel will act alone so we still good.
hyper-liquid-xyz Aug 7
Stock market closing, we might see something spicy or not, either US accept Iran tolls or rejects it.
Shay1 Aug 7
Remember my words war back again or Israel will attack alone like last time USA didn’t want to hop on so Israel attacked and then USA didn’t small ass attack for the cherry on the top
Mikelious Aug 7
Senior U.S. intelligence official: Iran is only a few months away from producing its first nuclear bomb, and activity at its nuclear sites has intensified significantly.
SIMOMEGA Aug 7
now the odds are much more honest
Mikelious Aug 6
Initial reports of explosions heard in Qeshm Island.
Shay1 Aug 6
No deal signed and will never will way Too much disagreement… just see soon guys also full month btw no need for rush
SuckMyDicck Aug 6
likely deal signed
Mikelious Aug 5
BREAKING: IRAN POUNDING BAHRAIN.
Shay1 Aug 5
Oh okay thanks and yea I know we may back to war that weekend
Shay1 Aug 5
Israel about to attack in Lebanon again soon
Mikelious Aug 5
ISRAELI MILITARY ISSUES EVACUATION WARNING TO VILLAGE IN SOUTHERN LEBANON.
Mikelious Aug 5
No de-escalation aka war. Because if you wouldn't intend to go to war you wouldn't need more refueling tankers.
Mikelious Aug 5
Al-Mayadeen correspondent in Tehran: "Iran and Oman could reach an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz if American interference comes to an end." Seems like the US is blocking a deal on Iran's terms. All out war imminent this weekend.
Shay1 Aug 5
Israel attacking Lebanon
Shay1 Aug 5
What dose it mean bro?
Mikelious Aug 5
Additional tankers on their way to Israel.
Shay1 Aug 5
United States president Trump According to him, if the Iranians collapse the talks again, the US will attack them with force. The words of the commentators are a continuation of the "carrot and stick" policy towards Tehran, with the fate of the opening of the Strait still depending on the results of the ongoing diplomatic talks
Shay1 Aug 5
US calls on Trump to "break the rules" with Iran; IDF prepared for possible weekend attack* ✍️In the US, calls from various sources are being made for the president to take a more decisive approach with Iran, claiming that the current situation "humiliates the most powerful power in the world." Appropriately, the IDF is assessing the possibility of a large-scale attack in the arena this weekend. 🔵 According to the report, criticism in the US is directed at the recurring pattern of announcements of strikes that are later canceled. 🔵 It was also reported that the IDF is assessing the possibility of escalation in the arena over the weekend, and is preparing accordingly. ❌ The arena remains tense, in addition, internal criticism of the conduct with Tehran is increasing, and Israel is maintaining high alert for escalation
Shay1 Aug 5
What a dump demm chill like we don’t have a full month until August 31 wtf
Mikelious Aug 4
WSJ: The U.S. and regional governments rejected Iran's demand to collect fees, instead pressing for guarantees that Tehran's proxies won't attack or threaten their territory.
Shay1 Aug 4
Reports: Iran Attacks US Base in Kuwait and Ship in Strait of Hormuz According to reports published tonight, the Revolutionary Guards terrorist organization attacked a US base in the Gulf of Kuwait, shortly after attacking a ship near the coast of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz - continuing the pattern of attacks that is recurring in the arena.
Mikelious Aug 4
Iran targetted a US base overnight and hit 2 ships today. Don't think any ceasefires are going to happen.
Mikelious Aug 3
CBS: NO NEW NEGOTIATIONS PLANNED BETWEEN US AND IRAN.
Mikelious Aug 2
Fars: Iran says there is no agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
NOIZYUV Aug 2
🌮🌮🌮🌮🌮
Shay1 Aug 2
At least we have a month man that trump acts like a demm bitch
sayrus Aug 2
Ain't no way. I anticipated limited strikes with no consequences (as usual), but TACO is bigger than that.
Son28 Aug 1
Trump taco again lol
Shay1 Aug 1
IDF raises air defense alert for possible escalation with Iran* ✍️The air defense alert was raised starting this evening, amid concerns about a possible escalation with Iran (IDF sources to Walla).
