This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration. Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify. Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
24H VOLUME
$29.5K
LIQUIDITY
$29.5K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (12)
Tato1000 Jun 17
If he's killed its a no?
Extravagance3 May 26
I'll take that as a compliment. Check the timing on the buys, I am just beating market reactions to pivotal news. I think I'd have way more than 3k earnings otherwise my guy. It also helps that everyone in the trump admin has very obvious behavioral tells and strong baselines for when they lie and tell the truth.
0x964FFc23Ed82F5302B49899886084b14a8bbDa0c-1765015708119 May 25
dawg, you've been right on most of the American military positions you've taken, no inside information?
Extravagance3 May 25
would still resolve to yes. "regardless of location or duration". i.e., if they slap cuffs on him for any duration while he is on his way out, it becomes "he died in US custody"
0xcd2274d441Bc376035C450EE7ed16Ef0df407Cb8-1772746884000 May 24
lol thats impossible
evcqas May 24
You fucking idiot I hope I get your 🤑 😂
0x34f1cE81Dc882bd92867eA351282895310A14C93-1762810792161 May 23
I think Yes there is no dead or alive
paddaa May 23
He’s gonna have a heart attack if they try to capture him
MagicEightBall May 23
that pricing is completely from delulu lands
Extravagance3 May 23
Does killing Castro and taking "physical custodial control" of his body count as yes? I know Polymarket is trying to be all PC about anything involving killing now
Extravagance3 May 22
Brother they didn't spend months building a case on him just for fun. for your own sake please sell asap because they want the symbolism of taking down a Castro
enrico-vasaio May 22
They have nothing to gain from taking him. What's the reason for yes?
