On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Comments (4)
BondSeeker Sep 18
UAE already out, rest of the countries probably will wait for OPEC next move on quota before deciding to leave.
dsb May 12
an african country will leave OPEC this year in favor of american oil energy investment
kotil.eth Apr 28
opec üyesi 12 ülke var . bu bahis olası evet görünüyor.
0xaA692D596614BF964AC151277b65841fc4433b00-1766187024973 Apr 28
The UAE exit sets a precedent, but Kuwait and Iraq do not have the same freedom or economic diversification as the UAE. They are more vulnerable and more tied to Saudi Arabia’s orbit. While both are frustrated, a quick follow-on exit is unlikely in 2026 unless the Hormuz situation causes a total breakdown in OPEC+ cooperation.
