This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
24H VOLUME
$7.2K
LIQUIDITY
$7.2K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (50)
0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557 Sep 17
What is dead may never die
Spirit-LT Aug 30
Lebanese MP Ashraf Rifi, who previously served as Minister of Justice and headed the Internal Security Forces, has stated that Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is clinically dead. “In my assessment, he is either clinically dead, or his political role has come to a complete end. The statements being published in his name are most likely a reflection of a power struggle within the Iranian regime,” Palestinian news agency Maan quoted him as saying. Rifi named IRGC commander General Ahmad Vahidi as the key figure in Iran’s leadership, saying that he had managed to consolidate what remains of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and concentrate power in Iran in the hands of the organization. According to the politician, this goes beyond an internal power struggle and amounts to a coup d’état. It represents a departure from Iran’s fundamental principle of velayat-e faqih, under which the head of state is the country’s highest religious authority — the Supreme Leader.
ForeverAlone69 Aug 21
according to the rules, if there is no way to prove, it will resolve to “No Head of State”.
Treedud25 Aug 8
This will be over quickly… read the news. Sketchy meeting in pitch black car..? Critical condition?
vpoznyak2 Aug 7
wasy money or..?
skbdi Aug 5
even if he never appears, irgc will still claim he is the leader. so this could be disputed
Yarick Aug 2
He has been mummified 3 months ago with his daddy….
Yarick Aug 2
Wait and see what Trump does to him…lol
Treedud25 Jul 27
Hes dead.
0xb6514e0836ba48eD4b86439D254d99071Cd0b4F7-1782077010161 Jul 27
sure bag holder, Mojtaba yes is literally 92% chance and your avg. no is high af, you've already lost this one
Yarick Jul 27
Only idiots, watch us or Israel take that disabled already leader out…
Treedud25 Jul 26
WHO ARE THE CLOWNS BIDDING THIS DOWN
0x688B15F0B28ED993dba8EE14F3485ddbB55349F5-1774551591274 Jul 25
Invisible leader
0xb6514e0836ba48eD4b86439D254d99071Cd0b4F7-1782077010161 Jul 24
Mojtaba yes will print, Americans are already frustrated because of that orange fatso's actions and the fact they are being called child murderers now by many countries, most are not ok with this and that means Mojtaba will remain in power (92% chance)
UmaSucksBalls Jul 23
Trump is going balls to the wall to force the regime change. This year he proved to not taco by wiping out the previous leaders. He’s hella pissed now with what’s going in the strait. Either he wipes them out or America goes into the deepest levels of the Great Depression from all the war spending and let’s be real this mfer wants to his ratings to go up by end of year.
Treedud25 Jul 22
This is already over.
UmaSucksBalls Jul 22
I’m sure it will come to light as some point just hopefully it’s this year.
UmaSucksBalls Jul 22
Mfer been dead just need intel to leak it. Fucking IRGC worst than a girlfriend who will cry to your face but is actually lying behind the tears.
Hummershark Jul 20
This fucker already dead!!!!
PA4EVER Jul 19
yesss
UmaSucksBalls Jul 18
Operation Nuke Yes holders
UmaSucksBalls Jul 17
Mark my words this bitch is going to flip to no
0xBdE37A19aAb4EBaEFAf7263E7C6010982f6e317f-1773683866961 Jul 17
00jbvof3
hyper-liquid-xyz Jul 15
Ooo possibly more friction in negotiations - Iran calculated $9 billion in profits from market manipulation by "individuals close to Trump," mainly Kushner and Witkoff, and formally requested $4.5 billion of that sum be allocated to Iran through intermediaries.
UmaSucksBalls Jul 14
The all of sudden jump in no head of state is interesting. Maybe trump finna nuke all of Iran.
UmaSucksBalls Jul 13
It’s going down! I’m yelling timber!
Ardalof Jul 12
Say hi to Ali Khomeini
UmaSucksBalls Jul 11
Or cause it would have been an easy way to get him killed too
UmaSucksBalls Jul 10
I wonder if he’s actually dead and if so how long will they use his ghost as a placeholder
Moly-Parket365 Jul 9
Add option UMA chooses next leader of IRAN
0xb6514e0836ba48eD4b86439D254d99071Cd0b4F7-1782077010161 Jul 9
that's something that orange moron would've said
JackSeraph Jul 8
Not attending your father's funeral is essentially tacit confirmation that he's dead and the IRGC are using his name as a marionette to run the whole show. Pezeshkian totally irrelevant and sidelined.
0x03141505C79F7D82eA4d426105Cb228B4eD92F6d-1766507216051 Jul 7
I don't understand why the scandalous lack of any proof that Mojtaba is alive isn't being used as a major weapon against the regime.
You009 Jul 6
Easy money
NOIZYUV Jul 4
The 🐽 is not alive
0x310DF5D5D48BAA38050EB76d5E611a40623FBEd0-1759164332082 Jul 3
Mojtaba is a no show for his fathers funeral…
Malaya6372 Jun 7
hard to bet against the status quo holding through the year
Malganis Jun 6
It's strategically important for the IRGC to keep ambiguous Mojtaba's status, weither he's in the best shape of his life or, more likely, under an unmarked grave. This market real value is more or less "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?", currently sitting wayyyy cheaper at 13 cent.
Yarick May 20
That’s a very valid and legitimate point… truth doesn’t always win on Polymarket
Flafson May 18
Many market resolve over a negative outcome not because they didn't happen but because there is no way to prove it happened in the given timeframe. I 100% agree with you but right now doesn't matter his state, IRGC has no interest in revealing the truth. Even if war resumes and he's dead and none knows about it and Israel kills more leaders, how do we know he's not leader anymore? Weird situation to be at.
0x08D3B3B85486415EB01D5670a75F2ea4958D4D01-1769819978040 May 17
People overwhelmingly want Pahlavi and the current leaders keep dropping, isn’t it obvious?
Yarick May 12
[link removed] Us intelligence and CIA shows Mojtbna Khamenei is either dead or cannot function normally. No way he is leading his fractured country…
FutureSignalv May 6
Starting to feel a bit overheated
GothABG Apr 28
whats going on with odds right now?
CompromisedGuy Apr 23
Yup that's why I say it
Jordanius Apr 23
Rezaei would be more palatable than Vahidi
CompromisedGuy Apr 22
I would add Mohsen Rezaei
Yarick Apr 22
[link removed] Khamenei is ousted by Irans revolutionary supreme guards, looks like they are not taking orders from him.
Yarick Apr 21
Khamenei is not in charge anymore[link removed]
Yarick Apr 21
Khamenei is not in charge anymore, ....[link removed]
