This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/p9N3w6yRVfjx6cuZ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
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Comments (50)
0x2b583aA0a204e456189deBF726Cb294F7AD49a40-1770642145773 Sep 19
it's going to be ggwp after the election, and especially if they push in frontline the anti-drone system on tanks. jet powered drones, 300k mobilization, antidrone system, ukraine failing to keep up with the air-defense, artillery constantly raining upon ukrainian positions, it's going to be a tough winter and arrows going to move quite a bit.
anotherpatrick Sep 1
why did u sell it bro? it works even until next year
anotherpatrick Aug 25
@elPolloLoco appreciate ur contribution
10to5 Aug 20
great post
smaIIfish Aug 15
Cope final boss
BetsAhead Aug 14
ISW is very biased. Its connection to former U.S. diplomat Victoria Nuland is clear. The ISW was founded by Kimberly Kagan, a military historian. She is married to Frederick Kagan, whose brother is Robert Kagan. Robert Kagan is married to Victoria Nuland. Critics have pointed out this family connection, noting that Victoria Nuland was a senior U.S. diplomat who shaped policy on Ukraine and Europe. It has funding from the defence industry, including General Dynamics, Raytheon, CACI, and DynCorp
0x2b583aA0a204e456189deBF726Cb294F7AD49a40-1770642145773 Aug 8
Huliaipole was captured long before DeepState or ISW reported it, however, they took their sweet ass time to declare it captured. DeepState marked it as captured 3 weeks before ISW did.
smaIIfish Aug 3
If you genuinely believe that then you are actually cooked. It will be until at least December before there's a chance.
Kixn Aug 3
Konstyantynivka should be long captured by then and Russia at least 10km past it
smaIIfish Aug 3
Cope
smaIIfish Aug 1
insane odds for NO sep 30
JoeBlack01 Jul 27
test
Kixn Jul 27
they will do something like they did for Huliaipole and shade the whole area red except for an empty destroyed house in the corner of the village
HopeDisLasts Jul 26
Well its a proven fact. They were caught at it before. Google it
HopeDisLasts Jul 26
Тебе в петушатнике скели помогут вспомнить русский. Судя по видео оттуда, там с петухами только на нём и разговаривают
ragutwo Jul 26
I don't understand your crap language. Also you stink, did you shower today?
HopeDisLasts Jul 26
Не, это в бусике ТЦК так пахнет. Запах "восторг хохла" называется
ragutwo Jul 25
smells like piss. must be dirty orcs crying
pink.impala Jul 25
your a sheep man BAA
pink.impala Jul 25
Its affiliated with the Kagans and the neocons, main grifters of Project Ukraine
Lord-Yopta Jul 25
😎😎🇷🇺🇷🇺
10to5 Jul 24
Anyone that claims, professionally, that Konstantinovka has NOT fallen to the Russians is lying without any shadow of a doubt. Those who control the very narrow information stream uncannily, solely used to resolve this market are almost certainly placing bets on the very market they are manipulating. You can tell by the way the market odds actually move in relation to the news. It is time to ask where can information be presented that will prove ISW is manipulating this market and should be removed as they are not credible
0xbd8Cb56218A89E4aC413dca8339019A10342b47E-1782761223873 Jul 13
ISW as usual To be honest i'm at the point thinking that it is affiliated with some gambler
Kriegsspiele Jul 13
Bro you are sick
10to5 Jul 13
Everyone except Zelensky says Konstaninovka is captured and it is already in the rearview mirror but it is part of a constellation of towns that form a reinforcement line critical to the entire US/EU nato UA front narrative. Propaganda of denial is critical for the west and its massive funding schemes and obfuscating its direct involvement. Russia doesn't make this stuff up as a rule. Learn that
Kriegsspiele Jul 11
That's funny how guys trying to prove the city is fallen because Putin said so, lmfao. It will happen later this year, but not yet.
Sheen60 Jul 11
True
BetsAhead Jul 11
Kostyantynivka is already captured, ISW has political motives to not put it on their map.
Kixn Jul 11
I get a headache reading their poorly written slop that is full of pure bias and total nonsense, anyone working for them should feel embarrassed
HopeDisLasts Jul 7
First time? Just wait, you will see even bigger circus from ISW
0xD987b4A61F145dD7a01498EE3AB08362557020B6-1782506064922 Jul 6
Man the irony with ISW. Paints blue like parts recaptured by Ukraine when those parts are so-called advancements claimed by Russia. Why tf dont you have it as dark red then huh?
BetsAhead Jul 6
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is an American advocacy think tank founded in 2007 by military historian Kimberly Kagan and headquartered in Washington, D.C. It is about as unpartisan as Radio Free Europe. It is part of the psychological warfare cluster, not objective information
pink.impala Jul 6
makes sense
pink.impala Jul 6
how you know this btw, you was tsybka follower?
pink.impala Jul 6
imagine what a loser youd be to follow tsybka, talk bout having no life
The-Last-Degen Jul 6
Did you guys know tsybka tried to charge a sub for ISW updates? the funny thing is his followers actually paid LOL
tsybka Jul 5
Obsessed with me? That's good. Keep posting your nonsense and boosting my popularity.
LiquidatedDegen Jul 5
SCHIZO tsybka the human cockroach is back at it again.
tsybka Jul 5
🛡️
pink.impala Jul 5
All together we are strong, down with Zelensky, hey! 🔥 🔥 🔥
10to5 Jul 4
Analiyts after analyst all confirm Konstaninovka has fallen. There is video, pictures of Russian flags and evacuation of AFU troops. Guess who lies all the time
Wintermaul Jul 4
"Ukraine still controls the strategically important eastern city of Kostiantynivka, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the General Staff said on Saturday, rejecting Russian claims that it has been captured."
0xD987b4A61F145dD7a01498EE3AB08362557020B6-1782506064922 Jul 4
Even DEEPSTATE anounce the other day the capture of Huliaypole but ISW still not. Lost a bet for them what a hypocrites they are
tukaninko Jul 4
words of this piece of shit are worth nothing
AluV Jul 4
Guys those bets are according pro-ukranian map, they scam you for money. Even a video proofs doesn't count to them. So dont buy "Yes" please
10to5 Jul 4
Putin has just declared the following in a speech: “The capture of Konstantinovka is only the first, but a very important stage in destroying the Ukrainian armed formations that are still holding the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Konstantinovka fortified area,” Konstantinovka has fallen, deal with in your own way but the lying is not a good look
10to5 Jul 3
Konstantinovka has now been liberated so maybe it might take a bit more advancing to make it impossible to deny but there is little resistance in front and there has been a lot of propaganda painting a false picture of the reality on the ground
Kixn Jun 23
there is also a big bias too
Lord-Yopta Jun 23
надеюсь на благоразумие isw
HopeDisLasts Jun 22
You seriously underestimate ISW capability to deny reality
