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Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Politics

Eventcmtla1nm805jemv01vxpc9qti
Closes in

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

24H VOLUME

$403

LIQUIDITY

$403

BALANCE

$0

Resolves according to the official outcome source for this event.

Comments (50)

WillBeQuant Sep 15

Aenews what you doing on the yes side here ?

WillBeQuant Sep 15

everybody that says this wants to sell you some bs only thing you can do is watch what top dogs in the leaderboard trade and do you own analysis copytrading never works

whalterwhite Aug 31

from who?

0x60348C0F9AE27Ae7D8987C403811f8A15fAA307f-1768105143890 Jul 18

Half of cuba is filled with soldiers who would kill any navy member, marine etc. the other half is tired of living in a system where the united states is preventing them from getting basic necessities

oldecho1099 Jul 18

copy trading is the way.

0x60348C0F9AE27Ae7D8987C403811f8A15fAA307f-1768105143890 Jul 18

The united States is blocking essential electricity to hospitals and old people homes. A lot of people are dying.

BillyRios Jun 15

Buying yes at 23c

Morphias Jun 14

Invade? probably yes. Take control over the country? Definitely Not. The wording on this market is clear.

LuHuLu Jun 10

The biggest reason why trump wouldn't dare invade cuba is because cuba might throw a couple missiles back at florida before ultimately succumbing; and if any of those missiles land, trump's popularity goes in the toilet.

💰💰 Jun 7

fake news

aenews2 Jun 7

Cuba has begun distributing weapons to civilians and urging citizens to prepare for a possible foreign invasion - CNN

Ineedmoreshares Jun 4

Looks like diplomatic avenues are progressing? Cuban regime is much more complicated than Venezuela. Not only from a political perspective, but militarily too. The last time the US invaded a foreign island was in 1983.

kevtp Jun 3

It would count as an invasion if the soldier is there to establish control over the territory, and is not going to count if it's just a raid to inflict damage or kidnap someone, for instance. The smaller the force, and the shorter the stay on Cuban territory (just hours for instance), the less likely it will count as an invasion.

WatchMeMakeIt Jun 2

just as a clarification, does a shit helicopter landing 1 soldier on the ground count as an invasion? because they aready scammed us on the shitty iran market, which gain, theres no proof of what actually happened there but they counted it as a yes the bastards

hugeinjapan May 25

[link removed]

aenews2 May 21

If they hold territory, it would. Maduro did not.

outkvst May 20

JUST IN: US deploys aircraft carrier to the Caribbean as tensions with Cuba rise.

Inchoroi May 17

Does a Madr=ura-style kidnapping count a an invasion? Technically they controlled his compound when they grabbed him

0x34f1cE81Dc882bd92867eA351282895310A14C93-1762810792161 May 14

Cuba's Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy confirmed the country has exhausted all diesel and fuel oil reserves, with only limited domestic natural gas remaining for power generation. America Will Save Them lol🤭

paddaa May 12

what are they even gonna invade

aenews2 May 12

No Republican has ever spoken to me about Cuba, which is a failed country and only heading in one direction - down! Cuba is asking for help, and we are going to talk!!! In the meantime, I’m off to China! President DJT

hugeinjapan May 10

Giddy up

hugeinjapan May 10

[link removed]

Drinkpusher May 10

we all good

Iax May 7

Trump will take Cuba just like how he took Greenland!

aenews2 May 2

interesting, guess I'm the fastest shot in the pm world but still a slowpoke

addicts May 2

I see, it was just interesting to me since memecoin traders seemed to have reacted faster to the news than pm traders (there are some cuba takeover coins)

aenews2 May 2

I have a proprietary custom set-up

addicts May 2

what tracker do u use for tweets

aenews2 May 2

President Trump says the U.S. will be "taking over" Cuba "almost immediately." But he says, "we'll finish one first, I like to finish a job," meaning Iran.

MonBillions Apr 20

FoxNews: President Trump addresses reports of potential military action in Cuba: REPORTER: “There have been reports that the Pentagon is preparing for military action in Cuba. Are those reports true? Is Cuba next?” TRUMP: “Well, it depends on what your definition of military action is.”

Pharaon Mar 26

Yes they do. Minimal amount,

monkeyballs1337 Mar 23

Ok so it's confirmed they're doing it then

Earningg Mar 21

*!Bond market:Epstein client list released by June 30?

paddaa Mar 20

"us military not invading cuba": Gen Francis Donovan, head of US Southern Command,

Earningg Mar 20

%Bond market:Epstein client list released by June 30?

suraxy Mar 19

they don't even have oil

lost-lotus Mar 18

Hear my words for you who shall donate, i will bestow upon you great success, good health and wisdom, if there is a lord he shall fulfill this.

Dr.Mundo Mar 18

Aggression is possible, but invasion is extremely unlikely. Especially with Iran "special operation" going as well as Russian special operation in Ukraine.

DidntHearNoBell Mar 18

chad spread crosser vs virgin limit maker

SmakAfriki Mar 18

his name is jeff

Bromley86 Mar 18

[link removed]

Car Mar 18

another average day on Polymarket

Bromley86 Mar 18

Jeff heard you.

iForgor Mar 18

press like if u came from poker

paddaa Mar 18

jeff why?

0x04189509749b62a3a153C2A7E006602F1a79e734-1769821236846 Mar 16

nop

Epiblanco Mar 8

Yes 🫡

0x9411f36e6BDb38C22465b0FE7b7BC1358fE4805A-1763833036881 Mar 7

all iin

kevtp Mar 7

Depends on how, I suppose. Venezuela they effectively took over and the invasion market resolved No - do not need boots on the ground to effectively take over, make a country aligned with you, or change management.

Yes

Potential payout$416.67