This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
24H VOLUME
$4
LIQUIDITY
$4
BALANCE
$0
Comments (31)
Thedevilwearsprada Aug 12
If Colombia gets a strrike will it be 9?
0x77Fa7e303F7a8017016A8388EF7ebA40a4a31A63-1764354685885 Jul 30
1 more strike at Cuba and it will be 9
1walrus May 16
They just struck Nigeria yesterday
johnnath1222 May 8
What you found brother?
Relaccsed May 5
6-7
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 May 3
Rex help
Rex416 May 3
Iran Iraq Syria Somalia Venezuela Yemen Ecuador
chickendinner69 May 3
actually nvm, I should've done my research better!
chickendinner69 May 3
why the fuck is this resolving?
chickendinner69 Apr 26
This is basically a bet on whether the USA will bomb Nigeria or change from providing only ISR support to direct support in Mexico, Colombia, or Ecuador (which seems unlikely) or accidentally drop ordnance on some other country. The US has very little to gain from hitting Cuba (it will not cause regime change, and Maduro was a special case) or Lebanon (it's Israel's theatre, not the US's). I think this market deserves to be at 50%. Yemen, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Somalia, and Venezuela have already happened, so they're non-issues.
Winifrad Apr 7
I expect we'll see double digits by summer if the 'Epic Fury' ripple effects continue in the Sahel
Ralphi Mar 22
also siria to be confirmed, also equador have been bombed and shoud be added
Ralphi Mar 22
lebanon to be confirmed
nufonehudis67 Mar 21
5 countries resolved no, so at least 6 countries have been hit, apparently I'm not online enough but 5 are Somalia, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Syria and... at least one more. Maybe Yemen?
Savage-Snow Mar 15
The US has hit 5 countries so far. High probability on Mexico and Lebanon. Low probability on the Philippines and Colombia. I don't think it can be more than 9 or 10 countries.
johnnath1222 Mar 8
I agree with you. At first read, I found it unlikely that US would be striking cartel target in a friendly country. That kind of direct military action is mostly reserved for terrorist or ai. to weaken adversaries in the disguise of anti narcotic operations.
nufonehudis67 Mar 8
it's debatable :) my understanding is while Ecuador did strikes, US are only confirmed to have provided intel and operational support; perhaps US did more but it was only implied and not confirmed. If only Ecuador did strikes, doesn't count. You need a source saying US did air/drone/bomb strikes. There are lots of nice sounding lines from articles out there, but I couldn't find a smoking gun. I would love it if Ecuador counted, it's very good for me, but I don't think the evidence is there, I may be wrong. [link removed] = a source saying Ecuador used fixed-wing aircraft etc...but only mention intel/support from US. Fox saying "US military conducts targeted strike" feels juicy, but I couldn't find anything out that says it was more than a metaphorical strike.
johnnath1222 Mar 8
That's debatable. Major outlets like Foxnews have said US stikes. [link removed]
nufonehudis67 Mar 8
Ecuador misleading
dravey Mar 8
you're a cunt
johnnath1222 Mar 8
Am I counting it correctly?Somalia, Iraq, Iran,Venezuela, Ecuador verified and Yemen, Nigeria, Syria not verified.
Ralphi Mar 1
iran proxy in iraq got hit, why "4" didnt close?
0xd6878d76d24B797c6900E872aE7a3660D1FE5D9e-1768395767872 Feb 28
Yeah, full of foreigners
siick Feb 26
It’s not even close buddy. We have 8 of the top 10 universities lol
Ralphi Feb 26
according to you
siick Feb 24
We have the best universities in the entire world
BlockchainBiggie Feb 5
Syria got hit today. Doesn't that count as one?
Chococremeux Feb 4
list goes up to 15... what % of muricans can name 15 countries?
valmier Jan 10
Syria makes 3
nufonehudis67 Jan 7
7 days in, Somalia and Venezuela done
Deboroh Jan 6
Attack one country each month, then attack 12 countries in the last month, and 24 countries in a year.
