This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
24H VOLUME
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Comments (50)
BetsAhead Jul 9
Several individuals listed on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) "People" page have direct and significant connections to the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC), particularly through its Board of Directors and specialized fellowships. While ISW operates as an independent, non-partisan think tank, its leadership structure is deeply intertwined with the U.S. national security establishment. The presence of a former CIA Director (Petraeus), a former Army Intelligence officer (Gilmore), and executives from a top-tier intelligence contractor (CACI) on its Board of Directors ensures that the organization maintains strong, direct ties to the U.S. Intelligence Community.
BetsAhead Jul 9
Unfortunately Polymarket uses ISW maps, which are heavily biased towards the Western intelligence community. It is in that way similar to Radio Free Europe. Institute for the Study of War is founded by Kimberly Ellen Kagan who is married to Frederick Kagan. Kimberly and Frederick Kagan have cultivated close ties to the Defence Department. Frederick's brother Robert Kagan’s wife, Victoria Nuland, is the state department official who very publicly supported Ukraine’s 2014 Maidan Revolution—the overthrow of pro-Russia President Viktor Yanukovych, which led Russia to seize Crimea and give military support to secessionist rebels in the Donbass.
Venedictov Mar 29
Получается, что Пыня опять напиздел, что Купянск взяли.
cidesui77 Mar 20
Thank you for your attention to this matter
pink.impala Mar 17
Lost all my money in Russia captures, gonn
mlrs Mar 7
vitalik hello
tsybka Feb 16
done
Azrarn Feb 5
We need June 30 market!
0x637CFEb761B148AF0F6D01a58cA4d4AeE05bf0a1-1766050524049 Jan 30
according to ruzzia they should have captured all of UKR in three days, maps are updating a little slow it seems
as87287 Jan 27
According to Russia, Kupyansk was captured in December 2025. What about the map?
ThePredict0r Jan 27
Even pro-Russia sources are saying neither side has the manpower to establish control over the entire town.
AuthenticDemigod Jan 24
COPEIANSK
OraculumNobius Jan 19
By sources, do you mean fake Russian propaganda? According to their sources, they have already taken over half of Europe and Alaska. Better sell me some more “NO.”
nuclearpie Jan 18
it is not even russian russian propoganda
dracooo Jan 15
This has already happened, according to other sources.
0x637CFEb761B148AF0F6D01a58cA4d4AeE05bf0a1-1766050524049 Jan 15
where'd all the ruz fanbois go?
ajtsoK Jan 12
fog wise or temperature wise, elaborate
0xb705c996584580A94467Db598C96d88677A9366C-1766611664098 Jan 12
The weather currently favors Russia.
ajtsoK Jan 8
alot changes once the weather changes
Irisy Jan 7
With only about 60 Russians left in the basements and the supply lines cut off, I don't see how they take the whole city by next month unless they literally level it with glide bombs first.
yhzlsmk Dec 29
That's fair. Still learning how this market works. Thx
OraculumNobius Dec 28
fake russian propoganda.
OtaBenga Dec 28
Hahahaha
yhzlsmk Dec 27
[link removed]
tg-COPIUMBET Dec 21
Unreal prices =)
SatoshiBladerunner Dec 21
Price discovery on this is lagging behind the whale flow. Significant alpha if you track the top holders.
Nardo99 Dec 17
We need will Ukraine capture Kupiansk market.
seaman86 Dec 17
Vsosaly rashiki ebanie!
Skovorodnikov Dec 16
Chel s otrizatelnym profit eje chto govorit)
GenaTsidrusni Dec 16
fascists means russia
johngotti Dec 15
lol that cracked me up
OraculumNobius Dec 14
idealyno chel)))
JesusCrust Dec 14
Wrong direction bro, you bought yes.
ez4me07 Dec 13
4to s EBALOM RUSNYA?
pink.impala Dec 12
Zelensky there and taking selfie so i increased my holdings
pink.impala Dec 12
oh i just came here cuz some PSYCHO relplied to a two weeks old comment of mine, wouldnt have bought more otherwise
beeenji Dec 12
Great loss, war monger, keep it up, buy more yes
oleksandra Dec 12
They are getting information with a huge delay, wait a week until russian tg channels finally acknowledge reality
pink.impala Dec 12
replying to week old comments is a sign of mental illness
0x4382aBB3393AC62f76cD1d363670D10b684C861B-1763854631711 Dec 12
What's up with the mug, shorty??
0x4382aBB3393AC62f76cD1d363670D10b684C861B-1763854631711 Dec 12
What's up with the mug, shorty?
Pupsikov Dec 9
Theres a thing called, ability to think logically, if the troops were nearby would you think they'd come out on rooftops dancing with colourful flags for a few minutes if a drone could drop anytime? Riskig their own lives for a simple celebration?
Pupsikov Dec 9
Do you even believe what you say? They're outnumbered 1 to 11, which is a conservative approach and they're taking land back?
Pupsikov Dec 9
[link removed] enjoy true info for once
OraculumNobius Dec 7
Can you show me even one video with fascist flags in the western part of the city?
0x4382aBB3393AC62f76cD1d363670D10b684C861B-1763854631711 Dec 5
Putin told you that Kyiv is in 3 days, and you still think that Russian troops are near Kiev.
0x4382aBB3393AC62f76cD1d363670D10b684C861B-1763854631711 Dec 5
How do you know reality?
DumplingBMF Dec 4
What geo were there in the western part of the city?
0x366717f90136C6740edC1c3d977A2CC40982A875-1759154502408 Dec 4
Or maybe on the geolocated data instead? that shows Russians waving flags all over the city? Or should we just ignore both reality and the statements confirming said reality instead?
Hexxxagon Dec 3
so Putin's a better ground truth in your oppinion
