This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
24H VOLUME
$2.9K
LIQUIDITY
$2.9K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (5)
TheBigMuscle Sep 15
The 2024 senate election in Nebraska was R 53 Osborn 47, and that was with Trump on the ticket and inflation being bad with Biden in office. Osborn is leading in the most recent poll and should be favored here. Nebraska is not Wyoming.
hdtomo Sep 12
Nebraska is hard to poll - difficult to cheaply spam polls when it's 3 farmers, Gene Takovic, and some grass. So the result has been we don't have many polls. That is probably the difference between the state being +3 to +5 Osborne and the fundamentals swamping out any poll like it is now. 30% seems low when the ceiling is 'less Republican than Texas with Paxton'
HDTomo-229 Mar 13
Dan Osborne needs to be added to the market. As for the analysis - it echoes Ohio a lot - we know the Democratic narrative has expanded greatly since November/December and yielded a massive Dem overperformance in the Texas Senate Primaries and now the polls. Ohio was staunchly forecasted to be a Republican state based off polls in November, and the second polls came in (as of a few days ago), it's become very clearly tilt Democratic. Nebraska is currently witnessing very similar conditions, Ohio is a canary in the coal mine for states predicted to be tilt Republican without major polls in nearly half a year.
BobbyBakedBeans Feb 20
market is pricing in Dan Osborn run
DeezNuggies Dec 8
There's an in market Republican / Dem arb
