On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm. An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
24H VOLUME
$86
LIQUIDITY
$86
BALANCE
$0
Comments (50)
0xC2661D16350ED82d5C2292294BAa01851fB68187-1777122597209 Jul 30
From Ynet - Israel most read news source
0xC2661D16350ED82d5C2292294BAa01851fB68187-1777122597209 Jul 30
Israel and Hamas on the way to an agreement: "There is a formula for the weapons issue" The Israeli and Gazan media report significant progress in talks on moving to the next stage in the Gaza Strip, and the Peace Board confirms it. According to a source who spoke to Ynet, understandings have been reached regarding the "delivery and storage" of the weapons, and the Palestinians reported that an announcement is expected today: "The condition - a complete withdrawal and a halt to the killings." Israeli officials: "The direction is positive, no tricks"
autisem Jul 2
Can someone propose
0x64AA3F2869DE45F6121f6760288432D19681E774-1763311387317 May 6
Operational tempo suggests inflection.
Justadudem May 5
So i should still hold it shouldn't i
matematemate Mar 26
money wont get more free than this;
0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d Feb 19
No way this happens with an Iran-US war looming
Quilty Feb 6
Israel bombed a three-storey Palestinian residential building in Gaza City’s Al-Zeytoun neighborhood in the latest violation of the ceasefire agreement.
0x310DF5D5D48BAA38050EB76d5E611a40623FBEd0-1759164332082 Feb 4
A joint Saudi-Turkish statement: We welcome the launch of the second phase of the "Comprehensive Peace Plan in Gaza" and the start of the sector management committee's tasks.
Krushvize Feb 2
Hamas has announced the completion of preparations with governmental bodies in Gaza to hand over control to the internationally backed technocratic committee that will administer the strip.
0x310DF5D5D48BAA38050EB76d5E611a40623FBEd0-1759164332082 Feb 1
What needs to happen for this to resolve to yes? The mediators have repeatedly declared that Phase II has begun
PuffPuff Feb 1
How or where are disputes made? This had to be resolved with "Yes".
Alexxd Feb 1
so when will it get resolved as a yes?
M2sx92kljs42 Feb 1
You fail to comprehend Trump and Witkoff statements are not a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. You've asked, you got the answer. Do whatever you want with this.
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733 Feb 1
Since the rules specifically exclude Hamas's acceptance of disarmament as a requirement for the "Yes" resolution, Hamas's denial of those specific terms cannot be used to invalidate the agreement.
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733 Feb 1
US Envoy Steve Witkoff officially announced the "commencement of the second phase" on January 14, satisfying the rule that requires the deal to be "publicly described by... mediators on their behalf as the completion of Phase 2.
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733 Feb 1
Read the fine print again. You are confusing a successful truce with the market's definition of an agreement. MEDIATOR RULE: The rules explicitly state an agreement qualifies if described by mediators on their behalf. Witkoff (US Envoy) officially announced the commencement of Phase 2 on Jan 14. That satisfies the public acknowledgment criteria. EFFECTIVENESS RULE: The market resolves Yes regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Current bombings are irrelevant to whether the diplomatic agreement exists. Disarmament Exception: The rules specifically state the deal qualifies regardless of... agreements by Hamas to disarm. PROOF OF AGREEMENT: Israel and the NCAG mutually agreed to reopen Rafah on Jan 31. That is a Phase 2 operational agreement, not a unilateral statement.
Yasoos Jan 31
What a shitshow, this should be settled already
M2sx92kljs42 Jan 31
Because the isn't any ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel. Israel bombed Gaza today. You fail to comprehend Trump and Witkoff statements are not a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. You've been told that so many times by so many people, and even two almost unanimous UMA votes weren't enough. For the last time: This market is about a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, not about the formation of the board of peace or the negotiation teams. Just read it, or lose more money in here, just stop blaming everyone else.
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733 Jan 31
Tell me a reason why this market is not a YES? Nobody is giving a simple reason
M2sx92kljs42 Jan 31
You guys come here and complain this place is rigged because it doesn't let you do 95x on your money in 10 minutes with zero effort
Alexxd Jan 31
from how rigged this site is it will probably default to no, it would be such a show for everyone to see what this platform is about, just sports betting
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733 Jan 31
everytime i ask any AI model always claim it's 100% YES
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733 Jan 31
There are few whales buying NO, and people is afraid of the 1% of the YES. This market is free money but the manipulation is creating fear. Get ready for the dispute this night
PuffPuff Jan 31
What the hell is this? Today's the last day and it's still at a 2% chance.
Bperil Jan 30
Phase two -- which has officially started, after the recovery this week of the body of Ran Gvili, the last slain Israeli held hostage in the Strip -- calls for the day-to-day governance of Gaza to be handed from Hamas to the newly formed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, or NCAG. [link removed]
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733 Jan 30
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to 'Yes,' regardless of if/when the agreement goes into [link removed]
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733 Jan 30
Read the rules!if you are so smart and already read the rules why yo only have 51 shares! Enlight us!
Alexxd Jan 30
all of you say read the rules like i need to read them for you, cite me what you think i didnt read and stop being slow yourself lmao
ZohanDvir Jan 30
bro why are you so slow read the rules and understand what you are betting on
HipoThesis Jan 30
YES
Alexxd Jan 30
Phase II begun, rafah will be opened on sunday, if it didnt begin it wouldnt have opened, so I still do not understand how people dont see it as an obvious Yes lmao
Matthewgg Jan 30
where you find it?
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733 Jan 30
That was before the finding of the last Israeli soldier, one of the conditions to start phase 2
0x6637808975ebf473E1efB5Bca5596416C7eeCE15-1766932017006 Jan 30
Guys if you look at the UMA voting you'll see previous two are both 0.66% yes against 99.33% early request. I don't think the final resolution would be yes
Alexxd Jan 29
sell your no's, no ways it resolves as no with the amount of phase ii confirmations lmao.. can't be this rigged
AboutTime Jan 29
Potential turning point for Gaza as peace plan enters second phase: UN envoy [link removed]
AboutTime Jan 29
Israel releases 15 Palestinian bodies as truce deal shifts to next phase
AboutTime Jan 29
Witkoff: We are now in phase 2 in Gaza deal
Alexxd Jan 29
where do you see that they need to complete the arrangements? it has to be publicly acknowledged as it is by hamas US and israel, it will count regardless of if it actually giving any fruit... if you read it you see that it is a YES already, proposed twice as suc hand disputed, now waiting for the same thing..
Alexxd Jan 29
"For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or *by mediators on their behalf*, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, *regardless* of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm."
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733 Jan 29
Or +4k in a week, bro, let's wait for this market
BigWileybum Jan 29
Protocols are prepared, files are complete, and committees are in place to oversee the handover, ensuring a complete transfer of governance in the Gaza Strip across all sectors to the technocratic committee,” Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem told AFP on Wednesday.
Alexxd Jan 29
after this i will just assumed its rigged AF and just leave it altogether
roadto1mil Jan 29
First week -2k??? Bro
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733 Jan 29
Great, first week here and I'm going to get scammed
Alexxd Jan 29
100% us as a mediator has agreed and Trump as president says it has started, actually waiting for it to be a yes. polymarket might be rigged if this goes bad
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733 Jan 29
[link removed]
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733 Jan 28
Not a single person who bought NO is giving a reason to keep this market open.
0xEf055B3CfC0AC3Aa46584A16DAe5c3C6Ab1AAA90-1767933558733 Jan 28
Every condition is confirmed to be a YES but...... We still didn't see a Hamas soldier and Netanyahu kissing each other so is a NO. WHAT A JOKE!
