On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Comments (50)
RICAMN Jul 30
Paz
TheTurkishGoat Jul 2
resolution please!
NOIZYUV May 15
The Israeli military says that it has carried out a strike in Gaza targeting Ezzedine Al-Haddad, who it described as chief of the armed wing of Hamas. [link removed]
LichiKing May 13
hahaha its cancelled every day, what a stupid world we live in now. Like literally there is fight in gaza every day
Gaeldirzo1724 Mar 3
Bueno eso es cierto, pero un ataque, no vale para que esto se resuelva como si , tienen que declarar oficialmente que se terminó la tregua
LTUDovydas Mar 3
if hazbollah joined hamas is likely, if hamas skips this then it's over for their fight, there would be no more allies nearby
LTUDovydas Mar 2
hamas could strike israel at its most weakest
crypto-basenji Jan 10
it's just matter of a few weeks. The cease fire is unsustainable [link removed]
MEPP Jan 1
was a good one
Trexan Dec 17
They violate it every day, but it doesn't count unless both participants say it does. And they won't.
degeneratorr Dec 16
timesofisrael .com/liveblog_entry/report-us-told-netanyahu-strike-on-hamas-general-violated-ceasefire-white-house-frustrated-with-pm/ Israel broke it
xoxy Dec 14
I wonder if the "ceasefire" would "hold" if Hamas killed senior israeli commander?
MonkeyKing2000 Dec 13
It's obvious that both sides don't care about this ceasefire. Every week, Israel conducts airstrikes and wipes out Hamas terrorists, but the cuckolds who decide the outcome of this thread only care about what Trump says. This is the last time I'll bet on this scam.
MonkeyKing2000 Dec 13
Israeli officials 'optimistic' after strike targeting Hamas chief in Gaza
S888 Dec 9
it's a fiery but mostly peaceful ceasefire
degeneratorr Dec 9
So the IDF shooting those 2 kids somehow wasn't breaking ceasefire?
rontro28 Dec 7
Absolutely. There will never be a real ceasefire with Hamas. Israel should just finish them off for good.
0xD53ff14833f662144de4305658C21AB28b43a22A-1764127858316 Nov 26
Is ceasefire happend this year?
CannaDough Nov 23
whoever liked this, this person is a bot. report them
CannaDough Nov 23
everyone please report the obvious bots
miserymiserymisery Nov 23
mimimi
pink.impala Nov 23
Argentine
0x01DB756Aeb481461973c5Ac526d7572A6AF077d1-1763498243545 Nov 23
A particularly blatant and gross violation of the ceasefire agreement: An armed terrorist crossed the Yellow Line, cynically using and exploiting the humanitarian corridor through which humanitarian aid enters the southern Gaza Strip. The terrorist fired at IDF forces deployed in the southern Gaza Strip, without causing any casualties. Immediately after identification, the Southern Brigade forces shot and killed the terrorist. This is a blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement. In response, the IDF, led by the Southern Command, under the direction of the Military Intelligence and Shin Bet, and through the Air Force, began attacking targets of the Hamas terrorist organization throughout the Gaza Strip.
xoxy Nov 23
Who is the 3rd?
WinterFallow37 Nov 23
turned $600 into $2.8k in 3 weeks. polymarket is free money when you have the right tools. period.
0x6A9B76D0DA8E949d50E6650A5b569cfcF2B4a81B-1724973915489 Nov 23
What a wild day!
pink.impala Nov 22
Who voted against? Guesses? Anyone?
pink.impala Nov 22
November 20, 2025 - UN Resolution against torture Only 3 countries voted against
WinterFallow37 Nov 22
saw this market 30 seconds after launch. bet $250. already 3x. early bird gets the worm fr
pink.impala Nov 22
i thought YOUR a libtard..
8200 Nov 22
she doctored the video and published it, thats why everyone hates her. and shes a stupid libtard that would sacrifice the country just to get rid of bibi
0x8f53d8521906FF0c8d205Ac0dbfDCbE3dAe149B0-1761083843683 Nov 22
Polytools also show several sources quoting Hamas end of ceasefire
0x6A9B76D0DA8E949d50E6650A5b569cfcF2B4a81B-1724973915489 Nov 22
KAN: Israel estimates: Gaza ceasefire will not collapse Despite the recent series of incidents in Gaza that have called the agreement into question, Israel expects the ceasefire to be maintained. Hamas is not pulling out all the stops - and is demanding that mediators intervene to force Israel to abide by the agreement.
BooleanProphet Nov 22
NYPost: Hamas reportedly says it’s pulling out of Gaza cease-fire over alleged Israeli violations
0x76ba9b6749C3F16d02091442C8d70FD2E99d711D-1760789097001 Nov 22
Hamas has passed along messages to the US through Arab mediators that it is prepared to end the Gaza ceasefire over what it says are Israeli violations, an Arab diplomat tells The Times of Israel.
degenerateape Nov 20
Another day, another 20 deaths in Gaza meanwhile the ceasefire is somehow still intact 🤣🤣🤣
GEEK0 Nov 20
this ceasefire is funny, they just turn it on and off at will ^^
rontro28 Nov 20
depends on the type of migrants. stupid and criminal migrants are indeed harmful. smart and law abiding migrants might be net positive.
AmphibiousCPU Nov 20
It may ot not be from the Hamas organization but Hamas did not revendicate the aggression as far as I know.
rtwe6 Nov 19
no its not a joke
TheGrox Nov 13
Missiles fired from Gaza to Israel at this moment.
IvanIvanov Nov 11
A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could be cancelled by further escalation or a breakdown in negotiations, making peace efforts more fragile.
NextBachelor Nov 8
It also says "consensus of credible reporting"
VioletPemv Nov 8
The cancellation of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could escalate the conflict further, depending on the diplomatic pressure and military actions leading up to that decision.
pink.impala Nov 7
I mean I was called antisemite for saying that genocide is wrong, so I'm not really surprised
pink.impala Nov 7
Imagine being the most hated person in Israel because you spoke up against GANG RAPE
pink.impala Nov 7
Its the lady that leaked the IDF gang rape, they actually harass her
pink.impala Nov 7
WATCH: The military advocate general was released to a house arrest. She refused to answer questions.
pink.impala Nov 6
🤔 Good question by the Prof. I'm not sure exactly what it says about Israel, but its not a good look for sure. 😃
pink.impala Nov 6
"We have a society where prison guards gang rape Palestinian prisoners in the ass, and the prime minister then defends the rapists and attacks the lady that leaked the tape of the rape. You wanna ask yourself what this says about the Israeli society." - Prof. Mearsheimer
