This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.
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Comments (26)
0x92EaE9d2f5ad6c0af186980f8F8399CFb45dFf82-1722000940006 May 25
Good luck getting Tillis, McConnell, Murkowski, Paul, Cornyn, Thune or Cassidy vote for this. Fair value would be like 1 % for this.
magiclantern Apr 6
Bases of both parties have been calling for it for a while. Doesn't mean anything
0x92EaE9d2f5ad6c0af186980f8F8399CFb45dFf82-1722000940006 Mar 30
This markets liquidity is unmatched
ProulxS Mar 24
Base been asking it for ages but they know if they do they will reap what they sow as soon as next election happens. It's best tool by both party to do as less as possible. Just keep taking their pay and try to make country last a few more years without having to think further
Gary0XX Feb 2
I wish
xlefgerx Jan 17
KING Trump
Cadric Nov 20
The minute the Democrats filibuster a massive piece of GOP legislation in the new Congress, the base will demand it. I'm calling it by the end of Q1 2026.
IsabellaNovak Nov 11
The GOP might use the Nuclear Option to break the filibuster if gridlock deepens, but it would trigger major political backlash.
Svitovid Nov 10
Emperor Trump
Gabriely Nov 10
The key Republican leadership in the Senate, including Majority Leader John Thune, have firmly stated that the votes aren't there and that they will not eliminate the filibuster.
EliasMuller Nov 10
The GOP might resort to the nuclear option if they feel stalled on key legislation, but it depends on the political climate and Senate control.
Svitovid Nov 8
Step by step
Griffin_t_a Nov 8
Not if they codify after reinstating. Terminate it and then pass legislation that it can’t be removed again. Just like the nukes in Japan. Do it and then everyone can see the horror. Scares people from doing it again.
Griffin_t_a Nov 8
That’s why I know it’s going to get nuked. MAGA’s already starting to generate the noise. It can only go one way. It’ll be nuked by Christmas.
SomeEuopeanGuy Nov 8
hi
FemK-Ultra Nov 8
The thing is, if they remove the filibuster and reinstate it, it will set a precedent that in the future either party can do the same in order to pass legislation, rendering it meaningless.
Silasy Nov 7
The key Republican leadership in the Senate, including Majority Leader John Thune, have consistently and strongly rejected the idea. They argue that the filibuster is essential to the Senate and will protect them when the Democrats inevitably take power again.
0xBF471BaF1b0d2a4a6453246d3781B51ea73C01c7-1759458539117 Nov 7
Ok, so why not lower cloture for this singular vote, and then raise it again, cause rule changes only require 50%+1 votes? Is there a time limit or smth?
0x10AF14f85862e9E078059C4Af4a140A51b8F7B90-1762445458063 Nov 6
The filibuster needs to be new the only reason not to Nuke it is because the politicians do not support the president and his policies it is as simple as that maga needs to make lots of noise to get this nuked
0x10AF14f85862e9E078059C4Af4a140A51b8F7B90-1762445458063 Nov 6
Filibuster needs to be nuked!! The only reason not to is because the politicians themselves do not want to do it f
Derriak Nov 6
It's unlikely that either the left or the right will fundamentally revert to their own populist tendencies.
LunaShell Nov 6
GOP's aggressive nuclear option to dismantle the filibuster by mid-2026 is poised to ram through sweeping judicial confirmations, sidelining Democratic obstructionism in a high-stakes Senate showdown.
fiftyfour Nov 5
well I’m nearly all in here. good luck everyone
sthomsen Nov 2
This refers to the US Senate "reinterpreting" the cloture rule to lower the vote threshold to a simple majority (~51) for certain matters. Currently, the threshold is 3/5 (~60) of Senators present and voting for most matters. The threshold for appointment confirmations has been lowered by way of the "Nuclear Option" to a simple majority. Reconciliation bills are not subject to the cloture rule at all.
djl605 Nov 2
The "nuclear option" refers to eliminating the filibuster rule to allow legislation to pass through the Senate with a simple majority. Hence the official rules
0xBF471BaF1b0d2a4a6453246d3781B51ea73C01c7-1759458539117 Oct 7
Wait I don't fully understand this. Is this a forced recess as demontrated as the third nuclear option in CGP grey's video supreme court shenanigans or something else?
