Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Vanquish 13h ago

2.45B$ reconstruction plan for gaza is in the works, including disarmament (after the election obviously) : see Axios headline

Vanquish Aug 28

You're probably right. But still, the "Hamas's commitment to disarm" will no longer be "contingent" on Israël's approval to retreat, if they start giving away their weapons nonetheless.

Roeman Aug 28

You made 100 bucks, pipe down 🤣

UsualSuspects Aug 28

-$600 ☠️

UsualSuspects Aug 28

Yes, that is exactly right. Hamas must unconditionally surrender or surrender under terms acceptable to the other relevant parties. @LJa7io23MCv954j's hypothetical involving the Russian war is spot on.

Roeman Aug 25

33 shares 🤣

UsualSuspects Aug 24

The YES holders have no ground to stand on. The market spells it out in plain English that an agreement to disarm cannot be "contingent on future conditions". So anything short of an unconditional surrender by Hamas would not qualify.

Roeman Aug 24

Exactly, the word israel isn’t even mentioned in the rules

Roeman Aug 24

Thats not what they said, they simply said that they want Israel to be held to the promises they made under the deal. In your world this market would only become yes if hamas unilaterally unconditionally disarms

greengasper Aug 23

There is no deal tho ? And how are they supposed to disarm? Explain to me what reasonable mechanism was proposed and rejected by Hamas. They formulated the exact mechanism, but Netanyahu rejected the entire process which has nothing to do with what this market

LJa7io23MCv954j Aug 23

There is no deal, though. Polymarket explained it clearly. Why aren't they disarming right now? Because their agreement is contingent on Israel's agreement. Without it, it doesn't come into effect. If Putin said "I'll stop the war once Ukraine gives me Kyiv" and Ukraine said "no way," then Putin has not agreed to stop the war. What's unclear about that?

greengasper Aug 23

Hamas did not say anything. It simply agreed to the 20-point plan that Israel had already accepted. Point 16 stated that the IDF would withdraw according to "standards, milestones, and timeframes linked to demilitarization. They have now formulated a more detailed implementation plan based on that framework. Hamas accepted it Israel did not

greengasper Aug 23

We could understand it if they had no knowledge of the considerations surrounding this specific geopolitical market. But at the very least, they need to abide by their own rules. The rules state that plans contingent on future conditions do not count unless they constitute a formal policy. This has now become their formal policy, and they have never retracted it. Even after Israel rejected the plan, they officially reiterated their commitment to the disarmament plan. The plan requires for exemple the entry of the ISF. What happens if Israel itself blocks this process? And how is Hamas supposed to disarm without a formally agreed upon mechanism? The commitments and the outline of the agreement were already established in the 20-point plan. What changed is that Hamas accepted the disarmament provision and that is precisely what this market is about. If Israel rejected the very deal it had already signed, that is not what this market is asking about

LJa7io23MCv954j Aug 23

You guys really can't make the difference between "we agree to disarm" and "we agree to disarm after Israel withdraw Gaza"?

Car Aug 23

yeah, we got rugged by 2 Polymarket team members in a NYC office, who don't even know where Gaza is located on a map

greengasper Aug 20

The board of Polymarket needs to review itself this is a ridiculous market. A month ago, the real odds that Hamas would ever agree to disarm were less than 5% for everyone, even for decision makers in Israel, because disarmament is their primary political symbol. Then in a major breakthrough, they did agree, which reflects the true spirit of this market. Their disarmament agreement was included in a deal that Israel is trying hard to block. So, if Israel is trying to block the disarmament process itself, why should this market be named Will Hamas agree to Disarm? It should be rather titled: Will Hamas Disarmement process begin ? The market will definitely resolve to Yes but I'm not sure when. Either way polymarket should stop adding rediculous updates

Roeman Aug 18

The point when polymarket added israel to the mix, even though they are never mentioned in the rules it completely ruined this market. The only way this market is yes now is if hamas says “we will disarm regardless if israel bombs the entire country”

rickyvaughn Aug 18

Correct. Israel has already retreated to the Yellow Line in preparation for letting the NCGA and ISF into Gaza. Israel has already signaled they agree to the plan. Once Hamas hands over 1 weapon this will resolve YES

Vanquish Aug 18

"wouldn't be enough" ? If they actually start surrendering weapons in 30d, even without formal Israeli approval, it sounds moot since we're talking about actual disarmament, we'd be way past the announcements or commitments defined in the rules so far, no?

Roeman Aug 17

We could be seeing progress… in as little as 30 days, hopefully starting to take some of the weapons out,” Kushner tells Fox News while in Tel Aviv. Wouldn’t be enough for polymarket if they actually start disarming

ragutwo Aug 17

waiting for what is written in the rules to happen. Hamas already agreed. Only Israel was holding up, but now they may be close. Whether it happens in reality or not is separate from what the rules need

RAJAGO Aug 13

Well said

adasol Aug 13

This is just political theater for both Trump and Netanyahu. Trump scores by coming up with a peace plan for Gaza. Netanyahu scores by defying US plan and acting tough for the coming election at year end. If Trump is serious about the Gaza peace plan, he would have criticized Netanyahu when Netanyahu defied him. Nothing happens, because both men just perform their roles to the world. And Hamas would never disarm if Israel did not back down, Israel never back down until after the PM election at the end of October this year. So, NO is safe until November

dekelj Aug 12

i know

MrMelonHead Aug 10

Read the updated context. This market doesn’t require Hamas actually disarming.

Glicha Aug 9

מזל שהעולם מלא באהבלים ואפשר לנצל את זה

dekelj Aug 9

תקנו לא המחיר ברצפה אין סיכוי שזה קורה

Spirit-LT Aug 9

Lol

Roeman Aug 9

So gullible.

Spirit-LT Aug 9

Netanyahu: “Israel rejects the 15-point Peace Council document on Gaza. The IDF will not carry out any withdrawal of troops until Hamas is genuinely disarmed. We are talking about real disarmament, not a fake one.”

Spirit-LT Aug 9

Gg, bro. Netanyahu: “Israel rejects the 15-point Peace Council document on Gaza. The IDF will not carry out any withdrawal of troops until Hamas is genuinely disarmed. We are talking about real disarmament, not a fake one.”

Roeman Aug 8

It was about rules, which have been fulfilled

Spirit-LT Aug 8

This will never happen. Look into the issue in more detail. This isn’t about logic or about what we would like to happen.

Glicha Aug 8

let him lose

rickyvaughn Aug 8

Israel just needs to agree to the framework as per the clarification. Once the 14-day ceasefire starts it's a YES

Roeman Aug 7

That’s how it works when you agree to disarm, as they did

Spirit-LT Aug 5

I’m curious what the YES holders are hoping for. That the terrorists will lay down their arms? Or that Israel will be the first to make concessions?

rickyvaughn Aug 4

Now that Israel has demanded different terms it may complicate things. We will see. Good luck

yen4u Aug 4

I kinda doubt they ever agree but we shall see

rickyvaughn Aug 4

Israel will agree to the roadmap before 2027. That's all that is needed now. BoP has updated Congress on the terms so it's only a matter of time

yen4u Aug 4

Great bond Lonfus. We're winning this shit 🦔

ThanksGivingTurkey1001 Aug 3

Bond good

Zenef Aug 3

good

NOIZYUV Aug 3

Genocide in Spain: at least 88 Moroccan refugees died so for

Roeman Aug 2

They did.

ZombieAndreotti Aug 2

But daddy Trump said otherwise

brk2016 Aug 2

This is as clear as it can be, they did not release official statement about disarming.

ZombieAndreotti Aug 2

Thank you, appreciate it, have a great day

Glicha Aug 2

the final review won't be No because we're not in December 31. The final res will be "too early"

ZombieAndreotti Aug 2

What happens is the final review is No? Does the market close as no or does the review counter go back to zero?