Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

Brovadana Sep 21

DevDay Sept 29

hfv Sep 21

That's the most reasonable interpretation, and what most people mean when discussing new products in tech. Regardless of whether it refers to a start of sales or a mere unveiling of a product, both are being blocked either way by Apple's civil lawsuit.

QMG-CORE Sep 21

What is the definition of launch? I assume must be selling by the date?

hfv Sep 20

They're unlikely to unveil anything when doing so will justify more trade dispute or IP infringement lawsuits from Apple. Furthermore, doing so would obligate them to release what they unveiled, which isn't a good idea when it's not clear at all whether they will be able to release it to consumers. I also see that you've just sold 8k shares, so we now have confirmation you're not an insider. I would recommend you to take the exit now with the rest of your position before the market corrects more.

M4Play Sep 20

There’s a difference between physical product fulfillment and a form factor unveil

hfv Sep 20

The next court date is October 14, so those statements will have been made with a month as the reference point. This carries a strong implication it will take longer than one month, and at the very least it will have to wait until Apple's trade secret lawsuit is resolved since OpenAI's access to the files will be frozen until then. Furthermore, Apple has used urgency to justify access to OpenAI's product schematics, so OpenAI is likely to use a strategy of delaying the launch date further to defeat Apple's urgency argument. Otherwise if the case does go to trial, it will be unlikely to be resolved before late 2027 or 2028.

Brovadana Sep 19

"not coming anytime soon". Extremely vague...what is "soon"? What is "imminent"?

hfv Sep 19

That's merely speculation, whereas on the other side OpenAI has issued a legally binding statement in court. On the technical side, the YES probability has also consistently fallen since the initial gap upwards and that's consistent with the market repricing towards correction after volatility induced purely by a large order taking liquidity, rather than indicating the initial move was informed.

addicts Sep 19

M4Play insider tho?

hfv Sep 19

This market is horrifically mispriced. Monday, September 14, 2026 During a federal court hearing in San Jose, California, OpenAI's legal counsel explicitly stated that its consumer hardware device is "not imminent" and "not coming anytime soon." This is a much stronger confirmation than other sources until now, since these statements are legally binding under the Duty of Candor. This was prompted by a trade secrets dispute brought forward by Apple, and accordingly there is no indication any release in 2026 will be possible. The fair value for YES is $0.

Brovadana Jul 27

Yes it is problematic to say the least.

Brovadana Jul 27

The value of the company only did like 10x in the past year or two. That's what counts.

0xb6514e0836ba48eD4b86439D254d99071Cd0b4F7-1782077010161 Jul 27

These scammers from openai have to try something, they are losing tens of billions of $ every year and they are not able to push their usual lies, so a product like this is likely, it will be a huge flop, but hey, that's basically this company in a nutshell

Linslav Jul 15

What does "launch" mean... such ambiguous and lazy rules. Does it have to be for sale available to the public with delivery date within 2026?

bonebot Mar 29

sam altman responded to one of my x posts saying its def coming out, I think specifically to fuck me after I bought No

bonebot Mar 29

sam altman responded to one of my x posts saying its def coming out, I think specifically to fuck me after I bought No

bonebot Mar 17

confirmed pushed to 2027, likely cancelled

Brovadana Feb 10

It will be released a month or two before Christmas, almost certainly.

Brovadana Feb 10

Gemini and Apple are releasing devices this year. OpenAI cannot afford to let them get all the market share, while sitting on their hands. Just not going to happen.

phsr Feb 10

Wired: OpenAI will not use the Jony Ive "io" branding for any of the company's hardware devices, VP Peter Welinder said in a court filing Monday. Welinder says OpenAI's first device won't ship til at least March 2027. The company has yet to make any ads or packaging around it.

Brovadana Jan 25

I agree...it is way too vague.

Brovadana Jan 25

I know...WTF. Why don't people like this market?

skepticalkamui Jan 21

OpenAI aims to ship its first device in 2026, and it could be earbuds @ techcrunch

INTERPOL Jan 21

"on track to unveil" in the "latter part of 2026" - Chris Lehane

Pewwww Jan 20

Wtf? What happened? No liquidity?

-estoic Jan 19

That photo bro 😭

franzr Jan 2

I agree, they could announce it at CES in las vegas this month and ship it in December 26. Does this count as YES?

guodua Nov 17

I keep hearing rumors about an OpenAI device, but honestly I will believe a consumer hardware launch only when they actually unveil something real.

0xBA51438e92F5F06A8266D73101B73E6Eb356Ff35-1719272903169 Nov 8

What does it mean to "launch" a device? Does the concept need to be finalized? Open to pre-orders? SHIP by the EOY? This is extremely vague..

0xBA51438e92F5F06A8266D73101B73E6Eb356Ff35-1719272903169 Nov 8

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

lmtfalone Nov 8

What happened here?

polymark Sep 21

Late 2026 or early 2027 according to The Information - " The devices won’t arrive tomorrow (or the day after that); the target launch window is late 2026 or early 2027 -- but the apparent trail for an Open AI-branded gadget is already telling."

0x74E93890e68A9D75bAdEbcCBaAe566b2654AD676-1757644865211 Sep 12

What the coin relate this chance?

polymark Sep 11

It's coming Late 2026: " In a widely cited report, the Journal revealed details from the internal staff meeting. They reported that Altman gave employees a preview of the device and its strategy. Crucially, the report mentioned that the goal is to ship the device by late 2026." -

polymark Sep 8

Yeah, it's going to come for a while. This is from his latest interview with The Verge: "It’s going to take us a while, but I think you will think it is very worth the wait. I think it is incredible. You don’t get a new computing paradigm very often. There have been like only two in the last 50 years. So just let yourself be happy and surprised. It really is worth the wait."

dbmilly Aug 28

ur phone is a device

Brovadana Aug 10

yes "soon" as in a year from now.

trader3 Aug 6

[link removed]

trader3 Aug 6

Sam Altman: someday soon something smarter than the smartest person you know will be running on a device in your pocket, helping you with whatever you want. this is a very remarkable thing.

speckledtrout Jun 18

Does “launch” mean available to public?

lordZet Jun 12

What about AI toys? [link removed]

polymark May 26

Sam has confirmed the physical device prototype exists and he's used it. The Jony Ive deal confirms it's ready & they just need to manufacture it now which could be done well before March next year. Odds should be way higher than 33% imo

polymark May 26

I suspect th device will be more like an oura ring or meta rayban glasses -- i.e. an accessory that connects to your phone and is recording data like audio and maybe video & serves as the input / provides context to interface with chatgpt much more seamlessly (i.e. almost like youre talking to a person) . That means the hardware itself won't be super powerful and therefore bumps up the release date since it won't be super difficult to manufature

0x65460C0EC6Be466f85799e2C410231eC51DcB71A-1724791664104 May 26

What's the definition of "launched"? It means the product can be actually bought?

MrNFT May 22

Chat gibidy

GenaTheBondKilIer May 22

I hope its a robo GF that doesn't nag you all the time